Egyptian Change and the US Limbo

The latest events in Egypt have revealed the importance of this country regionally and globally. Many resistance supporters in the region have said that Egypt was out of the picture when it comes to the Arab "Israeli" conflict and that it cannot be relied on in the conflict with "Israel". The possibility that this now may change is what is leading to this international focus on the situation in Egypt.

Satellite channels and media outlets in the region and beyond, most notably western channels are providing round the clock coverage of this event which unlike Tunisia, will change the geopolitical map of the Middle east. What distinguishes Egypt is that it is the most populated Arab country in the world and at the same time maintains what you may call good ties with "Israel". This is where the US limbo must be mentioned.

All officials from the Obama administration including Obama himself have gone out of their way not to show which side they are taking that of their traditional ally Hosni Mubarak or that of the protestors. The US administration cannot be viewed as being clearly supportive of Mubarak as it would then be accused of supporting someone who is clamping down on protestors and denying them their basic rights(note here Hilary Clinton demanding Mubarak to reopen communications such as phone lines and the internet).

On the other hand it cannot express support for the protestors as this would mean abandoning an important ally especially when it comes to "Israel", and also within the same perspective, when it comes to building a regional front against Iran. There are factors which may incline Obama to show more support for Mubarak.

The first and most important factor is the "Israeli" government officials who have come out with statements in support of Mubarak that will surely be translated into calls from pro "Israeli" congress members to support the Mubarak regime. The second is that Iran has started to comment on the situation and Iranian officials have begun to show clear support for the protestors. Hence a fall of the Mubarak regime from the US perspective would mean another victory for the resistance bloc lead by Iran and Syria after.

This would come after the US considered it was also defeated by this bloc in Lebanon where the March 8 movement overthrew the Saad Hariri government by constitutional means. At the same time however if Mubarak continues to insist on force to deal with the protestors as their numbers increase (calls for million marches this will put more pressure on Obama to make pro-Mubarak stances).Hence the US is likely to support what some are calling a peaceful transition of power to someone who will maintain or preserve US interests and will hold on to the ties with Israel in addition to preserving the same policy with regards to the Gaza strip.

This is probably behind the visit which is being paid by the US envoy to Egypt and also behind the latest outreach announced by newly appointed vice president Omar Suleiman who said that Mubarak had requested from him to reach out to the opposition. For this reason it is vital for the protestors to realize this political scenario and to continue their protests regardless of whether or not some of their economic demands are met.