Are We Heading for an Obama-Romney Face-off?
As we enter the second month of the American presidential election year the skies are clearing as to who will face President Barak Obama in November. The last Republican primary election in Florida was the most important both symbolically and also with its large number of delegates.
Mitt Romney won a landslide victory in this state and Mitt now has the two M's which may very well make him the Republican pick: Money and Momentum (of course he had the money from the beginning but the Florida victory clearly put momentum on his side after his initial Iowa victory was given to Rick Santorum following a recount, and his win in New Hampshire was belittled by his competition).
John Fortier who is a political scientist focusing on electoral and governmental institutions at the Bipartisan Policy Center Romney is the stable candidate (indeed, with the exception of South Carolina Romney has fared well in all other states though he hasn't come first in all of them). Fortier also says that Romney is "the establishment candidate" (the choice of the Republican Party leadership) in addition to his good political organization which can be attributed both to money and to the fact that Romney has experience in political campaigning, being one of the main Republican candidates back in 2008(before losing to John McCain).
And while Fortier points out that other Republican candidates are down but not out he highlights two major factors which will probably make it difficult for any other Republican candidate to capture the nomination. The first is related to the two M's. With momentum on his side Romney is in a good position to get more campaign donations from new sources simply because they see him as the future Republican pick. At the same time, with Romney's competition losing momentum this could make some of their campaign contributors think again by perceiving they are in a lost battle, not to mention that their campaigns will likely not attract any new previously undecided contributors.
The second factor, according to Fortier, is that Romney still has bases of support which will be very important in future battles. Romney's Mormonism faith will be a major factor in the upcoming contest in Nevada, which has a large Mormon electorate (a victory in Nevada, right after Florida also means more momentum). Romney is also likely to emerge victorious in states like Massachusetts which is his hometown and Michigan, where his father was once governor.
What's more is that according to opinion polls, Republican voters see Romney as the only candidate capable of defeating Obama come November.
So here the question is posed: Are we heading for an Obama Romney face-off? If we are, one might say that Obama will have the edge with personal charisma and appeal which worked so well for him last time around. But this time people have seen Obama in office and they see that he hasn't been able to fulfill all his promises of "change" which was his campaign slogan in 2008. Will the youth who worked so vigorously for Obama's campaign around three years ago show this same enthusiasm now? In this perspective, Fortier says that "the young educated voters and how they come out will be something to watch in November".
Another group to watch out for, according to Fortier, will be "the white working class who didn't turn out in high numbers last time but may do so this time around in favor of Romney. One could also add another electorate which hasn't been focused on too much and which also showed a strong pro Obama inclination in 2008: the Arab Americans. Though they are not considered a big electorate they could also prove decisive if the contest is close (which many expect it will be).
But many members of this community have told me they are not very enthusiastic to vote pro Obama this time (they turned out in record numbers in 2008). Of course the reluctance of members of the Arab American community to give their vote to Obama is related to foreign policy issues and a continuation of pro-"Israeli" policies during Obama's years in office, and also to issues concerning Arab Americans at home like the continuation of Islamophobia and the harassment at airports and other entry points into the US.
But according to Fortier, in the end the outcome will come down to what matters most: the economy. Here Fortier says "the economy is still uncertain". He adds that there have been some improvements however which have led to "the president doing well in the last few months". "If the economy improves", Fortier says, then the president will be in a strong position. And indeed an improvement in the economy might give strength once again to "Obama's personal appeal" and good speaking skills.
However if the economy remains as is, keeping Obama's approval ratings in the forties, then Fortier says the contest will be close. Still close because while Obama might not have the support he had against McCain he will still have the support of important social components like the African American community.
Of course there still remain other scenarios such as an economic catastrophe which could give the republicans the white house.
Source: moqawama.org
