’Israel’ is Turning into a Religious ’State’...Will its End Come from Within?

Hassan Ibrahim

Is "Israel" transforming into a "state" in which the religious character overtakes the secular? A question that has lately arisen in the aftermath of a report released by the Central Bureau of Statistics for the year 2014 has revealed that the birth rate among Haredi Jews, and also among orthodox Zionists, is 7 children for every Orthodox Jewish woman, as opposed to 1.4 children for non-orthodox women.

According to the report, the inhabitants of "Israel" are now 8,252 million, among whom 1.7 million are 1948 Palestinians [who have "Israeli" citizenship], forming 20.7% of the total "Israeli" population. As for Jewish citizens, according to the report, they number at 6.104 million, among whom 357 000 whom are not categorized as Jews, but have migrated to occupied Palestine through the "Law of Return" by way of marriage into Jewish families.

"Israel" is Becoming a Religious "State"

The report shows a decline in the birth rate of Palestinians carrying "Israeli" citizenship. Five years ago, the rate was 3.7, with the rate among Jewish women being at 2.7. In the 1970s, it was at 7.8 while it was at 3.2 for Jewish women. The birth rate of Arab women has now regressed to 3.2, while Jewish women are at 3.

What this means is that the birth rate among 1948 Palestinians carrying "Israeli" citizenship is now almost equal to the birth rate among Jews. Accordingly, the rate and number of increase of Palestinians carrying citizenship has greatly declined, and the difference between them and Jews is not so great anymore, and is no longer what it used to be.

The Demographic Threat for the Coming Decades

However, even should this data fall within the interest of Jews and the Zionist project for occu-pied Palestine, Tel Aviv's fears lie within the birth rates among the Jewish population, which are no less dangerous than the threat the increase of birth rate among Palestinians has on Zionism. To elaborate, we shall point out the following:

Tel Aviv is content with what it called the "bridging of the gap" between the increase of Palestin-ians carrying the "Israeli" identity and the number of Jewish citizens. If things remain as per the status quo, then there is nothing that would endanger the "state" in the demographic sense, or in the changing of its character from a "Jewish state" to a "bi-ethnic state". Should the percentage of Palestinians remain as it is [20 % of the total population], then Tel Aviv will be able to preserve the status quo and remove what it has come to call, "the demographic threat of the upcoming decades" from its agenda.

Counter to "bridging the gap", the threat of Orthodox Jews to the "state" is rising as reports on the matter [the latest of which is the report published by the Central Bureau of Statistics] suggest, stating that the percentage of Orthodox Jews in "Israel" is a little over 20% of the total number of Jews. This includes the Haredi religious group-- which forcibly, compliantly and for its own self-interest, coexists with the "state" and Orthodox Zionists, which call for a state, the necessity of its subsistence and continuation concomitantly with Zionist settlement in Palestine. This portion-- the 20%-- amounts in actuality to 1.2 million people. Combined with the 20% of 1948 Palestinians, they amount to over 40% of the population. According to the "Israeli" definition, this combination threatens the existence of the "state" regardless of each posing a different type of threat in its own right.

The bridging of the gap between Jews and 1948 Palestinians is the result of the increase of the rate of birth among the Orthodox, which has amounted to more than 7 children per Orthodox Jewish woman. It is very easy to find Orthodox Jewish families with more than 12 children. This increase is subject to further growth under the monetary policy imposed by religious parties in the Knesset on public finance. The livelihood of these families now comes from the ministry of finance and allowances for families exceeding five individuals-- which in actuality means Ortho-dox Jewish families-- more so than Palestinian citizens with their declining birth rates, with the exception of nomad families in the south whose birth rate is close to that of religious Jews.

But what is the danger presented by the Orthodox? The answer to this question branches off into many segments.

First: It is no secret that Haredi Jews are not Zionists. They do not look upon the "Israeli state" as the state they await for the Messiah to establish in the end times. According to religious Jewish belief, "Israel" is not the state of the Jews, and is dealt with as such. According to one rabbi, ""Israel" to us is like European countries where Jews live, yet with an added symbolic attach-ment, as we can practice our rights here more freely."

These grounds force them not to enlist in the army. The Haredim believe that Zionists have usurped the right of the Messiah by establishing this "state". As such, Orthodox youth refrain from volunteering or enlisting in the army-- as per a pre-1948 understanding between the Zionists and Orthodox by which the Orthodox imbue "Israel" with a "Jewish" dye through their mere presence there, and would be exempted from volunteering or enlisting for military service in re-turn.

A True Danger to the Military Establishment

Zionists were content with the status quo, as the number of Orthodox Jews was not significant. For a long time, they remained less than 5% of the total population, excluding 1948 Palestinians who carry the "Israeli" citizenship. Yet, their increase in number will endanger the military estab-lishment in proportion to the people, as it is expected that Jewish youth of 18 years of age will amount to 25% of the population. The "Israeli" army's manpower mainly comes from reserve forces and mandatory military service, which means that one of the "state's" main requirements will be missing, which poses a danger to its existence and continuity.

Though it is true that Orthodox Zionists who mainly live in [occupied] West Bank settlements serve in the "Israeli" army and consider it as one of their most important rites, they are relatively too few in number in comparison to the Haredis, and as such they cannot fill the void left by the Haredis' non-conscription.

Second: This also presents a great economic threat, as the Orthodox do not work. They only join religious institutes to receive religious knowledge or teach it...As for productive economic labor, they have nothing to do with it...In fact they're forbidden from partaking in them. It helps them that the agreements enforced since the establishment of the "state", and legalized by the Knesset, provide students of religious studies with funding from the "Israeli" treasury-- both for the pupil and his or her family, especially if it's a large one-- and the situation thus stands until today.

The increase in the number of Orthodox means that the GDP will be reduced, and the burden will fall upon the secular working segment of society, which in a few years will be reduced to half the population. Thus, every employee in "Israel" will have additional financial and tax burdens. This will in turn be a factor of repulsion that will encourage migration whilst banning the immigra-tion of non-"Israeli" Jews to Palestine. A secular Jewish wage earner in "Israel" cannot be ex-pected to work to provide for his family and an equivalent family of jobless Orthodox in a con-ventional manner fostered by the "state".

This danger yet increases as the Orthodox population increases, whilst the secular population declines. The secular family has one child on average, whilst Orthodox families have seven or more children. This number is likely to increase in the coming years as the Orthodox population grows, and to diminish the secular population in comparison. This will translate into an increase of economic pressure on the seculars, which will push it to look for a living outside of "Israel", and for better and more stable security and economic options that would due their labor justice.

Third: The increase in the Orthodox population means an increase in their mass mobilization, the number of their deputies in the Knesset, and as such, their political presence which will be reflected in "Israeli" laws, and all across life. Thus, the image of "Israel" and its non-secular character will change throughout the world. This, in turn, will be reflected threefold.

1- The increase of friction amongst secular and orthodox in several "Israeli" cities, mainly occu-pied Al-Quds ["Jerusalem"] where the orthodox population is most present, keeping in mind that that there are many neighborhoods now that the non-orthodox do not enter. This friction will in-crease problems, which may materialize in the form of quasi-daily clashes, reflected in local and international media; an image that is not in accord with the Zionist model that calls for the keep-ing of "Israel's" democratic image, at least as far as Jews are concerned.

2- The increase of the Orthodox population will constitute a call for orthodox Jews in other coun-tries, mainly the United States and France, to come and immigrate to settle in occupied Pales-tine, which will further increase their number, and in turn, decrease the secular population in the "state" in proportion.

3- "Israel's" image will be transformed from a "democratic state" to a religious "state", which will deter financial investment and tourism, and the attraction of secular Jews. As such, the model of "Israel" proposed by the early Zionists will be destroyed. At the same time, the GDP will decline, and the "state" will suffer in terms of taxes.

This data points out that the foundations upon which this "state" was established are flawed, and have an inherent capacity to destroy it. So, will "Israel" render upon itself what Arabs were una-ble of accomplishing?