Lebanon withdrawal haunts “Israel” ahead of Gaza pullout
source: AFP, 22-5-2005
summary: JERUSALEM (AL-QUDS) - Five years after hastily withdrawing from southern Lebanon after a bloody 22-year occupation, "Israel" is once again wrestling with similar problems as it moves to disentangle itself from the Gaza Strip, where it has been mired for nearly 40 years.
On May 24, 2000, "Israel" withdrew its forces from a great part of southern Lebanon and redeployed its troops along between the two countries in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 425.
The unilateral move saw "Israel" ending its 22-year occupation of the territory following an increasingly bloody guerrilla war with Lebanese resistance group, Hizbullah.
Despite fears that the withdrawal would lead to heavy bloodshed along the border, relative calm has prevailed, despite sporadic shooting incidents, mostly in the flashpoint occupied Shibaa Farms area.
Five years on, "Israeli" decision-makers are now wrangling with similar concerns as they push forward with plans to evacuate all troops and Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip, which has been occupied by "Israel" for nearly 40 years.
Concerns are rife that the historic pullout, which is due to start in mid August, will be seized on by militant groups such as the Hamas movement, as a resounding victory in the struggle against occupation.
Such was the view in the Arab world five years ago, which saw the May 24 departure as a lesson that even the "Israeli" army, considered as the region's most powerful, could be defeated by a tiny guerrilla force.
In the Gaza Strip, stronghold of the Hamas movement, "Israel" is also wrestling with fears that the withdrawal will strengthen the group's standing, both militarily and politically, and lead to a dramatic increase in cross-border attacks.
As the Yediot Aharonot daily pointed out Sunday, "Israel's" messy foray into Lebanon only served to strengthen Hizbullah.
"When we entered Lebanon, Hizbullah was a small, fringe organization; today it is a central political power in Lebanon that has served as a model for emulation by Hamas," it said.
"The immediate lesson that needs to be applied to the next unilateral disengagement is not to repeat the mistake we made with Hizbullah in allowing it to establish a balance of terror along the northern border with us."
Although the Lebanon pullout generated a sense of relative stability along "Israel's" northern border, political commentators are much less optimistic that the Gaza withdrawal will achieve the same end.
"It is much more complicated," claims political analyst Shlomo Brom, from the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University.
"You cannot look at the Gaza Strip in isolation but as part of "Israel's" relationship with the Palestinians. We are not withdrawing fully from the Palestinian territories so we are not solving the problem. In that context, the continued use of force is perceived as legitimate."
Despite the many differences between the Lebanon pullout and the planned Gaza evacuation, similarities do exist, particularly in relation to the development of Hamas and Hizbullah, whose prestige was increased by the pullout.
Known primarily for its military operations, Hizbullah is also a major provider of social services to thousands of impoverished Lebanese, and with 12 seats in the Lebanese parliament, it remains an important player in the political scene.
Like Hizbullah, Hamas has led an armed resistance campaign against "Israel" but has also won broad support, particularly in Gaza, for its social programme.
And now, Hamas is, for the first time, also looking to enter the political process by participating in the legislative elections on July 17.
"If, after some time, the integration of Hamas into the domestic Palestinian political process succeeds, one can imagine a situation in which they will gradually reconcile themselves to the idea of having some kind of settlement with "Israel"," claims Brom.
Uzi Arad, director of the institute of policy and strategy at the Herzliya Inter-disciplinary Centre predicts a far direr scenario.
"While it is true that the "Israeli" withdrawal from Lebanon did not result in any armed escalation between "Israel" and Lebanon, it had a spill-over effect: it gave a boost to the Palestinians to unleash their Intifada three or four months later," he points out.
"The logical consequence of the withdrawal is the resumption of the third Intifada," Arad warned.
Hamas, he notes, is gaining both in military strength, by using the current calm period to rearm, and in political strength, with expectations it will chalk up significant gains in the elections.
"The great irony is while "Israel" is voluntarily ceding land, and getting nothing back in return, Hamas is actually hardening its position and weakening the Palestinian moderates."
