Hizbullah: Relevant as Ever*
source: Oxford Business Group, June 2, 2004 - Lebanonwire
summary: When "Israeli" forces pulled out of southern Lebanon in May 2000, two distinct schools of thought began circulating in international policy circles about what would become of Hizbullah, the militant Shiite militia turned political party largely responsible for ending the occupation.
One group, call them the existentialists, argued that without its raison d`être the Party of God would fail, unable to resolve the contradictions of its hybrid party/militia nature. On the other side of the debate stood the transcendentalists, who held that Hizbullah`s significance, if not its original purpose, extended beyond "Israel`s" presence in southern Lebanon.
So, had "Israel" really pulled the rug out from under Hizbullah or had domestic and pan-Arab political factors conspired to ensure the group`s continued relevance? Four years on, there are few existentialists left of which to speak. If recent events in Lebanon - an enormous Shiite rally in southern Beirut and an impressive showing for Hizbullah in municipal elections - are any indication, more than simply surviving, the party has evolved into a major factor in not just national, but regional politics.
Hizbullah first emerged during "Israel`s" invasion of Lebanon in 1982. The militia then grew into a disciplined and increasingly effective force employing suicide (martyrdom) attacks and guerrilla tactics to induce the withdrawal of "Israeli", American and French forces from Beirut in 1985. "Israel" pulled back to a 15 km-wide zone in southern Lebanon where it fought a 15-year war with Hizbullah before unilaterally withdrawing in May 2000. Seen by many as the first and only Arab victor in the struggle against "Israel", Hizbullah`s star rose in Lebanon and throughout the Arab world.
The group`s growing popularity within Lebanon has come largely at the expense of its main Shiite rival, the Amal movement. The two groups once fought "Israel" side-by-side, but as "Israeli" troops withdrew from Beirut, the two militias turned their guns on each other in an effort to fill the vacuum south of the capital.
Relations between them have since improved, with the two splitting seats in the Lebanese parliament allotted to Shiite parties (nine for Hizbullah and eight for Amal). On the local level, however, the balance appears to be shifting in Hizbullah`s favor. Syria, the real power broker in Lebanon, is keen to keep potential challengers to its authority in check, and has sought to forge electoral alliances between Hizbullah and Amal, the latter being the more secular and pro-Syrian of the two.
Less than a week before municipal elections were to be held in southern Lebanon, Baalbek MP and president of the pro-Syrian Baath Party, Assem Qanso, traveled to the region in an effort to reach a consensus on electoral lists. But talks fell apart, with Amal members accusing Hizbullah of intransigence. Heartened by earlier electoral victories in the Shiite-dominated Bekaa Valley and south-west suburbs of Beirut, Hizbullah was negotiating from a position of strength and was unlikely to compromise over what many expected would be a sizeable victory.
The prognoses proved accurate, with Hizbullah securing victory in five of seven major municipalities - a result headlines and political analysts here have referred to as sweeping, when compared with results from the last election held in 1998.
All of this has put Damascus in a bind. Eager to prove to the international community that Hizbullah enjoys grassroots support, Syria remains concerned about the party`s growing confidence. At the same, Hizbullah is keen not to ruffle Syria`s feathers. With their impressive victory in hand, officials from the party immediately began calling for greater co-operation with Amal, stressing that any pre-electoral differences were minimal and would not undermine the essential strategic bonds that exist between the two parties.
As Hizbullah`s stock has risen within Lebanon, the party`s secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has begun addressing a wider Arab audience. Witness a rally held just days prior to the election in a predominantly, Shiite suburb of Beirut that drew an estimated quarter of a million people. In a show of solidarity with their brethren in Iraq and the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Nasrallah called on coalition forces to leave the holy Shiite cities of Karbala and Najaf. He went on to proclaim that we must fully understand that the battle is one, the enemy is one and that we are facing one camp, the American-"Israeli" camp.
That both the elections and the rally coincided with the Liberation Day marking the fourth anniversary of "Israel`s" withdrawal from Lebanon, served only to reinforce Hizbullah`s standing. Further proof of Hizbullah`s growing appeal has been its recent ability to win over a modest number of non-Shia, who see the party as charitable, pragmatic, and most importantly, effective - traits many voters lament are dreadfully absent in Lebanon`s other parties.
Though Hizbullah`s victory in the south was expected, it has served as notice to those who see the municipal elections as a preliminary test of the strength amongst political factions prior to parliamentary elections scheduled for 2005. According to Lebanon`s sectarian political arrangement, only 27 seats in the 128-member parliament are reserved for Shiites, but Hizbullah`s emergence as the preferred representative of Lebanon`s Shiite community - 40% of the country`s total population - is an impressive mandate.
Far from suffering from withdrawal symptoms, Hizbullah seems stronger than ever.
