2004 a year of successes for Hizbullah, despite pressures
summary: Resistance party`s reputation grew internally and externally
Even with UN Resolution 1559 analysts say group`s position is still strong
source: By Nayla Assaf - Daily Star staff 6-1-2005
BEIRUT: Despite the growing international pressure on Hizbullah to disarm, 2004 was a positive year for the party.
Sources at Hizbullah said 2004 was the second most important year after 2000, when "Israel" withdrew from (a great part of) the south of Lebanon and Hizbullah was proclaimed as a liberator.
On both local and international scenes, the Islamic resistance party achieved recognition during 2004 despite the looming international threat which culminated in the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 on September the 2nd.
"Hizbullah, this year, has definitely improved its prestige on the national and regional playing boards," political analyst Judith Harik said.
On the national level, the party`s victory in the May municipal elections - seen as a precursor of the general elections coming next spring - boosted its legitimacy, Harik said. "The more popular the party is, the more difficult it becomes for the U.S. and "Israel" to tone it down."
"On the regional level, once again, they proved to be the only Arab organization that can gain anything from the Israelis. They were able to secure an extremely profitable deal," she said.
The January 2004 prisoner swap between Hizbullah and "Israel" saw the release of 35 Lebanese and Arab detainees and more than 400 Palestinian prisoners in return for the bodies of four "Israeli" soldiers and the release of an alleged "Israeli" spy, Elhanan Tannenbaum.
After the releases, the party`s image improved considerably.
The releases were hailed as a victory by the Lebanese press and government and the detainees received a hero`s welcome upon their return. In "Israel", the prisoner swap was widely criticized as disadvantageous to the Jewish state. It was also deemed as a near recognition of Hizbullah as a negotiating partner by the "Israeli" government.
"Their image as a very important actor in the Middle East which is attempting to maintain the message of land for peace was boosted," she added, explaining that this was partly due to the party`s exceptional publicizing skills.
Yet another successful endeavor was the launching in November of a Mirsad-1 drone - a remote-controlled spy plane.
"This certainly portrays "Israel" as vulnerable, and anything that can make "Israel" look bad increases Hizbullah`s popularity among Arabs," she added.
"The launching of the drone was in itself a modest event, but its message is clear: "Israel" is exposed," she said.
And the future of the party, according to Harik, is not as bleak as some see it. Resolution 1559, she said, does not pose a direct threat.
"There is no chance of the resolution limiting Hizbullah`s force because no matter what, Syria is not going to get rid of its most important bargaining card in getting back the Golan Heights, especially in the absence of peace talks," she said.
She also ruled out the possibility of sanctions against Syria in the near future because, according to her, U.S. economic sanctions would not have a major effect on Syria, and Europe is not likely to endorse any sanctions.
But unlike Harik, political analyst Joe Bahout believes that sooner or later, Syria will have to give in to Resolution 1559.
"Ultimately, it will have to make some kind of concessions, even if keeping its grip over Lebanon is vital for it," he said.
However, "the party has played it smart in the face of the culminating international pressure to disarm. By remaining outside the circle of internal political bickering, playing the role of conciliator among political figures here and by achieving very good results in the municipal elections this summer, Hizbullah was able to widen its popular base and improve its local image," he said.
Also, with the pressure mounting, the Lebanese government is showing more solidarity with the party. "The best example for that is the widespread official denouncement of the recent French ban against Al-Manar," he said.
Bahout said the prisoner swap between Hizbullah and "Israel" in January was a double victory for the party because it meant the Jewish state recognized the party as a regional player.
Adopted on September the 2nd, UN Security Council Resolution 1559 calls for the disarmament of Hizbullah and other militias and for the withdrawal of Syrian and troops from Lebanon.
Hizbullah Timeline: Rising Prominence in 2004
Jan. 19: Hizbullah fires on an "Israeli" Army bulldozer that trespassed into Lebanon on the outskirts of the Birket Risha area, seriously wounding two soldiers. The United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) later found that the bulldozer was outside the UN`s blue line and inside Lebanese territory.
Jan. 20: For the first time in years "Israeli" planes attack a Hizbullah base in the Bekaa in response to the "Israeli" bulldozer assault a day earlier. However, only material damages ensue.
Jan. 29: The historic prisoner swap between Hizbullah and "Israel" is completed. Among the prominent Lebanese freed were Hizbullah operatives, Sheikh Abdel-Karim Obeid, kidnapped and detained in 1989, and Mustafa Dirani, kidnapped and detained in 1995, and Communist Party member Anwar Yassin, kidnapped in 1985.
The swap took place after "Israel" confirmed the identities of the three bodies of dead "Israeli" soldiers handed over by Hizbullah. Another significant bargaining chip for the party was kidnapped "Israeli" businessman, Elhanan Tannenbaum, whom Hizbullah says is a spy.
The release in Cologne, Germany, came after three-years of German-mediated negotiations. The Palestinian side, however, complained that most of the freed Palestinians were scheduled to have come out of prison anyway.
The deal also included the turnover of 59 dead Lebanese and maps for land mines in the former occupation zone.
May 9: Hizbullah achieves a sweeping victory in the municipal elections of the Bekaa, winning the majority of seats in all of the valley`s more than 100 municipalities.
May 23: Hizbullah achieves an unprecedented victory in the municipal elections of the South, winning 60 percent of the governorates more than 100 municipalities.
It was the best record for the party, which was able to gain ground for the first time over Speaker Nabih Berri`s Amal movement.
May 27: A strike against the price of gasoline turns into a riot in Hizbullah`s stronghold in the southern suburbs of the capital, leaving five people dead and at least 20 wounded after the Lebanese Army fired on protesters, some of whom were armed.
After day-long mediation by Hizbullah officials between rioters and the authorities, the clashes stopped. The investigations have yet to reveal how the violence erupted. Two days later, the party`s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, accuses the U.S. Embassy here of having generated the violence to frame the party, others pointed accusations to internal players and to Syria.
Sept. 2: The adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 which calls for the disbanding of Lebanese and foreign militias, among other demands, without, however, naming Hizbullah.
Sept. 3: Hizbullah`s 12 MPs endorse the constitutional amendment in Parliament which allowed for the extension of the mandate of President Emile Lahoud for three years.
Oct. 1: UN Secretary General Kofi Annan names Hizbullah in his first report on Resolution 1559. The report says Hizbullah has not disbanded and lists a number of (alleged) violations perpetrated by the party.
Nov. 7: Hizbullah announced that it sent a Mirsad-1 reconnaissance plane into "Israel" in retaliation for ongoing "Israeli" airspace violations.
The plane, operated by remote control, was able to breach "Israel`s" high-security northern border, reportedly leaving "Israeli" security chiefs red-faced.
The only other instance of "Israeli" air violation (penetration) from Lebanon was a 1987 incident when a Palestinian militant entered northern "Israel" from Lebanon flying a hang glider. He landed at a military base there, killed six soldiers and wounded seven others before being shot dead. Since that incident, "Israeli" anti-aircraft defenses in the area had reportedly been stepped up, with the military setting systems that can detect small low-flying aircraft.
Hizbullah`s spy plane, launched from southern Lebanon, reportedly flew for about 15 minutes along "Israel`s" northern Mediterranean coast, reaching the coastal resort of Nahariya, while a second plane reportedly crashed off the coast of Naqoura, Lebanon`s southern edge.
"Breach in aerial security. Air force embarrassed. Hizbullah sees all," read the front-page headline in "Israel`s" leading daily Yediot Aharonot the next day.
The newspaper also said the following in an editorial: "If we let down our guard for even a moment, we will find that this tiny bird, the drone, has turned into an eagle."
The "Israeli" military accused Iran of providing the plane to Hizbullah, since the Persian government has already produced and made use of such planes in the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980`s. But Hizbullah maintains it was produced in Lebanon.
Nov. 30: Hizbullah takes part in a mass-protest against Resolution 1559 in Martyrs` Square, Beirut. Although the protest was expected to draw 1 million people, it only drew a little over 100,000 people and was said to be sponsored by the authorities due to the high official attendance and because state security forces provided the demonstrators with an escort.
Dec. 14: French authorities ban Al-Manar satellite station, the party`s main marketing tool, which, however, does not officially belong to Hizbullah. The decision, taken following complaints by France`s Higher Audiovisual Council (CSA) was caused by alleged anti-Semitic propaganda. The decision came after months of disputes between the station and the French authorities over the content of several of its programs. The same day, Al-Manar stops broadcasting in Europe of its own free will, in compliance with the ban, pending an initiative to bridge the differences between the station`s operatives and the French government.
Major tasks remaining:
The freeing of Communist militant Samir Qantar, the longest-held Lebanese detainee in "Israeli" prisons - detained in 1979 for carrying a military operation inside "Israel". Hizbullah said it will use information about missing "Israeli" pilot Ron Arad - whose plane (war plane) crashed here in 1986 - as a bargaining chip to free Qantar.
