Lessons from Beirut: “Israeli” politicians have stopped talking of "Greater ‘Israel’"

Source: Al Ahram, 12 - 18 Oct. 2006
Fear of Hizbullah`s arms is the strongest bargaining chip the Arabs now have against "Israel". It should not be wasted, writes Amin Howeidi*
UN Security Council Resolution 1701 brought the war between "Israel" and Hizbullah to an end, some 33 days after it started. That resolution recognised Hizbullah`s status as a fighting force, if only by calling for its disarmament. For the time being, Hizbullah remains a cohesive militia (resistance-group) in possession of 20,000 rockets. No wonder, "Israel" wants it decimated. I see some Arabs going along with "Israel's" request to disarm Hizbullah. My advice for them is to think again. There is no sense in giving up something so effective without a quid pro quo.
To say the least, 1701 is a bit muddled. It mentions "Israel's" withdrawal but it is not clear whether the Lebanese army would be deployed in its place or UNIFIL. And the UN resolution has no particular way of getting Hizbullah out of the south. As things stand, the implementation of 1701 could turn Lebanon into an international protectorate, a country that cannot receive weaponry from abroad. Resolution 1701 gives "Israel" a sense of security, it is true, but it is a false sense of security, for the recent bout of fighting proves that all of "Israel", and not just its northern parts, is within missile range.
The strategic balance has shifted for "Israel". In case you haven`t noticed, it has changed for the Arabs too. Granted, the resistance cannot throw "Israel" into the sea. After all, the combined force of Arab armies failed to do so for years. But the resistance has been effective and that`s what matters. It matters that "Israel", with its regular army, has been unable to defeat a tiny militia. It matters that Hizbullah has proved itself a mighty opponent in battle. Hizbullah has inflicted pain on "Israel", and when it comes to politics, pain goes a long way. You may have noticed that "Israeli" politicians have stopped talking of "Greater ‘Israel'". You may have noticed that instead of rejecting a two-state solution, the "Israelis" are now quite willing to accept such a solution. That`s a major shift. When settlers in northern "Israel" had to flee their homes to escape the rain of Hizbullah`s rockets, power shifted. I want us to use this shift for political ends.
Let`s be cold-headed for a bit now. We`ve got an asset in our hands, and we mustn`t sell it short. We need to bargain, but first let`s hold on to our bargaining chips. The "Israelis" want security and so do we. But we cannot grant them absolute security. We must make them settle for reciprocal security. The "Israelis" want peace and so do we. But in return for peace, we want land. The "Israelis" should be made to feel that our capacity for fighting outstrips our eagerness for negotiations. Our leaders used to say that what was taken by force can only be regained by force. Let`s put this slogan to the test. Let`s demand something in return for the power we have in our hands. Let`s not give up our fighting assets, for we`ll perhaps need to use them once again. Instead of talking about disarming people on our side, we have to think of how to use our military assets in a politically productive manner.
The recent war took place on two fronts. "Israel" and Hizbullah exchanged fire on the military front. In the UN Security Council meanwhile, diplomats were launching their own offensive. At one point, the US delegation fought hard to give "Israel" time. The "Israelis" wanted to eliminate Hizbullah and the Americans wanted them to get the job done. Ever since, the Americans have been trying to achieve by diplomacy what the "Israelis" failed to achieve by war. Who were the "good guys" and who were the "bad guys" in this war? The Americans made up their mind early. Once again, the world`s "Great Satan" came to the help of the region`s "Small Satan". "Israel" wanted to win by a knockout and the Americans did everything to help it. But so far it has failed. Hizbullah has stopped "Israel" from winning, and we still have time to turn its military achievement into a political triumph.
* The writer is former Egyptian minister of defence and chief of General Intelligence.