Lula’s Election Lead Shrinks as Son Faces Business Influence Investigation

By Staff, Agencies

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is facing a tighter race ahead of October’s presidential election, with his advantage over rival Flavio Bolsonaro narrowing as allegations involving his eldest son create additional political pressure.

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released Monday showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 47.1% to 42.6% in a potential runoff, giving the incumbent a 4.5-point advantage. Another survey conducted by BTG Pactual/Nexus indicated an even closer contest.

The AtlasIntel findings suggest that investigations involving Lula’s son, Fabio Luis Lula da Silva, commonly known as Lulinha, may be affecting public confidence in the president. Federal authorities are examining allegations that Lulinha used business connections to lobby officials and influence decisions involving medical cannabis programs and procurement within Brazil’s Health Ministry.

According to the survey, about 53% of respondents believe Lulinha attempted to improperly influence government decisions for the benefit of business associates. Around 55% said the allegations have an impact on the credibility of Lula’s administration.

Lulinha is reportedly the subject of three investigations concerning alleged lobbying activities and access to government health officials. His lawyers have denied any wrongdoing, arguing that he acted within the law and that the accusations are politically motivated and intended to damage Lula ahead of the election.

Lula has defended his son’s right to be presumed innocent while saying he will not interfere with investigations. The president has also questioned some of the allegations, arguing that important claims appear to be based on interpretations of intercepted conversations.

The election is taking place against a backdrop of intense political polarization, with judicial investigations, accusations of corruption and highly active social media campaigns playing a major role in the political debate.

Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is also dealing with allegations involving his own political and business connections. Federal authorities are investigating his relationship with Daniel Vorcaro, a businessman linked to a major bank fraud case. Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into allegations that Bolsonaro sought financial support from Vorcaro for a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro has denied wrongdoing.

In a first-round scenario involving several candidates, the AtlasIntel poll gives Lula 43.4% support compared with 33.7% for Bolsonaro, with other contenders significantly behind the two leading candidates.

Brazil's first-round election is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, voters will return to the polls three weeks later for a runoff.