Nearly Half of UK Voters Back Rejoining EU, Poll Finds

By Staff, Agencies

Almost half of United Kingdom voters support rejoining the European Union, while closer ties with the bloc could increase Labour’s vote share by up to seven percentage points, according to a new megapoll by the Messina Group [TMG].

The findings come after Andy Burnham announced a review of Britain’s future relationship with Europe and said it should include the possibility of full re-entry.

However, several cabinet ministers and Labour MPs remain cautious, particularly those representing constituencies that voted for Brexit, warning that reopening the issue could revive political divisions and benefit Reform.

Nevertheless, the poll suggests public opinion has shifted since the 2016 referendum. Among 11,461 people surveyed between 12 and 24 September, 49% supported rejoining the EU, compared with 28.5% opposed. Cutting trade barriers while maintaining the current relationship received 48.2% support, followed by a customs union at 47.1%.

Meanwhile, support for joining the single market stood at 45.1%, while 45.5% backed associate membership. Maintaining the existing relationship was supported by 42%, while only 27.9% favored moving further away from the EU, with 41.2% opposed.

On timing, 25.9% wanted immediate re-entry, 22.9% supported joining within three years and 8.4% within a decade. Some 23% said they did not want a closer relationship with the EU.

The research also tested different political messages and found that all scenarios involving closer EU ties increased Labour’s projected vote share by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points, with much of the additional support coming from Green and Liberal Democrat voters.

At the same time, the poll found that more than two-thirds of voters considered trade with the EU more important than trade with the US or China if Britain had to choose. Four in five wanted to retain the pound, while 53.4% supported remaining in the European Convention on Human Rights, compared with 24.2% opposed.

Still, Brexit-related arguments over immigration control and national sovereignty continued to resonate with voters. The poll found that 29.7% believed leaving the EU had been the right decision, compared with 52.4% who said it was wrong. Asked whether Brexit had been a success or failure, 12.2% called it a success, while 54.9% considered it a failure.

Against this backdrop, Downing Street officials have been consulting thinktanks and pollsters as they assess public support for closer EU ties. Some officials remain concerned that reopening the issue could strengthen Nigel Farage, who said Burnham had given him “the biggest boost in my career” by reviving the Brexit debate.

Several cabinet ministers have urged caution, with concerns ranging from constitutional uncertainty and the costs of rejoining to the political risks in Leave-voting constituencies. One minister nevertheless argued that Brexit had failed to deliver its promises and that examining Britain’s long-term relationship with the EU was justified.

Ben Judah, a Chatham House visiting fellow and former adviser to David Lammy, described the findings as strong validation of Burnham’s approach, arguing that Brexit’s lack of success has become a broadly shared view and that Europe could help Labour expand its support among swing voters.