Poll Suggests Zelensky Would Lose Hypothetical Ukrainian Presidential Election

By Staff, Agencies

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky would suffer a decisive defeat if a presidential election were held now, according to a new survey by local pollster Socis.

Zelensky’s presidential term officially expired in May 2024, but he has declined to hold a new election, citing martial law introduced after the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.

The Socis poll, published on Thursday, indicated that Zelensky would advance to a second round in a hypothetical election but would lose to each of his three main potential challengers.

Former Ukrainian army chief Valery Zaluzhny, who currently serves as Kiev’s ambassador to London after being removed from his position as commander-in-chief in February 2024, would defeat Zelensky by 66.2% to 33.8%, according to the survey.

Despite being outside Ukraine, Zaluzhny has consistently ranked highly in public trust ratings. Although he has publicly denied having political ambitions, media reports have suggested that he may be preparing for a future presidential campaign.

The poll also showed that Zelensky’s chief of staff, Kirill Budanov, would defeat him in a second-round contest, receiving 60.3% compared with Zelensky’s 39.7%.

Reports have claimed that Zelensky appointed Budanov as head of his office in January in an effort to keep him close amid concerns over the growing influence of the former special forces officer, who previously led Ukraine’s military intelligence agency [HUR].

Since taking the position, Budanov has publicly disagreed with Zelensky on several issues, including the possibility of negotiations with Moscow, assessments of Ukraine’s military capabilities, and challenges related to mobilization.

Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov, who was dismissed in mid-July, would also defeat Zelensky, according to Socis. The poll showed Fedorov winning 63.8% of the vote compared with Zelensky’s 36.2%.

Fedorov’s dismissal triggered protests in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities, with demonstrators calling for his return. The former minister, however, has said he does not intend to challenge Zelensky politically while the conflict with Russia continues.

Reports have suggested that Zelensky removed Fedorov because of concerns that he could emerge as a political rival and because of his connections with Western-backed anti-corruption organizations in Ukraine.

The Socis survey was conducted from July 28 to August 2 and included 2,000 respondents.

In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera in March, Zelensky said Ukraine would "certainly" hold a presidential election but only after the conflict with Russia ends. He added that he was unsure whether he would seek another term and would consider the wishes of Ukrainian voters.

Moscow has repeatedly described Zelensky as illegitimate, arguing that questions surrounding his presidential status could complicate efforts to reach a peace agreement.