NBC Poll: Democrats Shift Toward In-Person Voting Ahead of 2026 Midterms

By Staff, Agencies

Democratic voters are increasingly planning to cast their ballots in person rather than by mail ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new NBC News poll, amid concerns over mail delivery and a dispute over new voting rules sought by President Donald Trump.

Only 23% of registered Democratic voters surveyed said they expect to vote by mail this year, down from 34% at a comparable point before the 2024 election.

Meanwhile, 36% plan to vote early and in person, up six points from 2024, while another 36% intend to vote at their polling place on Election Day, compared with 35% previously. 5% were unsure of their voting method or unlikely to vote.

The shift follows the expanded use of mail voting since the 2020 election, when the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a major increase in voting by mail.

Among independent voters, 20% said they plan to vote by mail, down from 28% in 2024, while 28% expect to vote early in person, up from 22%. Election Day voting stood at 37%, compared with 41% in 2024, while 15% were uncertain or unlikely to participate.

Republican plans have changed comparatively little: 16% said they would vote by mail, 26% planned to vote early in person and 53% intended to vote on Election Day, broadly in line with the previous poll.

At the same time, the debate over mail voting has intensified. The US Supreme Court on September 14 blocked enforcement of a Trump executive order seeking new requirements for states distributing mail ballots, NBC News reported.

Earlier this year, Trump directed the US Postal Service to limit ballot distribution to voters appearing on certain lists, prompting Democrats and voting-rights advocates to warn that eligible voters could face problems receiving ballots.

Although the order was blocked, Democratic and progressive groups said the dispute could itself create uncertainty over mail-voting rules. Trump has repeatedly criticized mail voting and made unsubstantiated claims linking it to election fraud.

Postal Service concerns have also factored into voters’ decisions, with operational and budgetary issues contributing to slower mail delivery.

Against this backdrop, Democratic organizations are increasingly encouraging supporters to vote early and in person rather than abandoning mail voting altogether.

Jane Kleeb, chair of the Association of State Democratic Committees and a Democratic National Committee vice chair, told NBC News that Democrats are urging voters to cast ballots early at county election offices.

The change could also affect the timing of election-night results. Early in-person votes are generally reported before Election Day ballots, while mail ballots can take longer to process and verify, depending on state procedures.

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt said the different voting patterns could cause support for the two parties to become visible at different stages of the count.

Despite the shift in voting methods, confidence in election administration remains relatively stable. 72% of surveyed voters said they were very or somewhat confident that their state would conduct the election fairly and accurately while allowing eligible voters to participate, essentially unchanged from 2021.

The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from September 11-15 through telephone interviews and an online survey sent by text message. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.