First Post-First-Round Poll Gives Flavio Bolsonaro 53% Lead Over Lula Ahead of Brazil Runoff

By Staff, Agencies

Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has taken a six-percentage-point lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the first opinion poll conducted since the country’s October 4 presidential election first round.

The PoderData/Aya poll, released on Thursday ahead of the October 25 runoff, showed Bolsonaro receiving 53% support, compared with 47% for Lula.

The survey was conducted from October 5 to 7 through interviews via mobile and landline telephones. It included 3,000 respondents across 705 municipalities in Brazil’s 27 states, with a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.

The latest findings mark a shift from the polling firm’s survey before the first round, which showed the two candidates tied at 50%. In the new poll, Bolsonaro gained three percentage points, while Lula’s support declined by the same margin.

The October 4 first round saw a closely contested race, with Bolsonaro securing 47.03% of valid votes against Lula’s 45.16%. Neither candidate crossed the threshold required to win the presidency outright, sending both into the decisive runoff.

Lula is seeking another term in office and will face Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, in the October 25 contest.

Both campaigns are now working to attract voters whose preferred candidates were eliminated in the first round, as they seek to build the support needed to secure victory.

Additional runoff polls from other major polling organizations are expected to provide further indications of voter preferences as the election approaches.

Under Brazil’s electoral system, a presidential candidate must receive more than 50% of valid votes to win in the first round. Since neither Lula nor Bolsonaro achieved that threshold, the presidency will be decided in the upcoming runoff.