Victorian Labor Faces Electoral Crisis as Poll Places One Nation Ahead

By Staff, Agencies

Victoria's Labor Party is facing mounting internal criticism and concern after a new opinion poll placed it third behind the Coalition and One Nation ahead of the November 28 state election, with its primary vote falling to a record low of 18%.

The DemosAU/PremierNational poll, published by the Herald Sun on Monday, showed Labor losing seven percentage points since September, while the Coalition reached 33% and One Nation climbed to 21%. The Greens also gained three points to reach 17%. 

The figures put the Coalition ahead of Labor by 56% to 44% on a two-party-preferred basis, compared with 52% to 48% in September.

DemosAU research head George Hasanakos said the results, if replicated on election day, could lead to contests across the state between the Coalition and One Nation, potentially delivering the Coalition a clear majority. He defended the poll's findings, which were based on 1,562 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.4%.

The findings have sparked concern within Labor's parliamentary ranks, although some MPs questioned the poll's accuracy and described it as an outlier compared with other surveys placing the party's primary vote in the 20s. 

Several lawmakers also criticized Premier Ben Carroll's campaign strategy, particularly its recent emphasis on crime, an issue traditionally seen as a Coalition strength.

Carroll defended his government's record, pledging to fight for working people and warning that a Liberal-One Nation government would damage the economy. 

His recent announcements include A$204 million for a youth rehabilitation detention program and A$70 million to recruit 200 additional police reservists and reopen or upgrade police stations. 

Opposition leader Jess Wilson, meanwhile, reiterated her party's commitment to tougher sentencing and introduced the proposed Aidan's Law following the fatal stabbing of 22-year-old Aidan Becker.

Separately, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson rejected reports that her former national campaign director, Sean Black, continues to work secretly for the party in Victoria. 

Black, who was convicted of rape in 2018 and later served a prison sentence, was rehired by One Nation in 2020 before Hanson dismissed him earlier this year. She insisted that his employment ended on the day she fired him.