By Staff

Political circles in “Israel” are following the US midterm elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate with concern, trying primarily to understand what the day after might look like if the Democratic Party succeeds in securing a majority, according to Itamar Eichner, political correspondent for "Yedioth Ahronoth".

“According to current estimates, Democrats are heavily favored to win a majority in the House of Representatives. Polls and projections put their chances of securing a majority at around 95%, with an estimated average of 236 seats, while 218 seats are needed to secure a majority. The picture is much closer in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 seats compared with 47 for Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, since Republican Vice President JD Vance holds the tie-breaking vote in the event of a deadlock.”

Eichner identified three possible scenarios for the US midterm elections, each of which would have different implications for “Israel”.

According to the correspondent, the scenarios are as follows:

1. An outright Democratic majority

If this scenario materializes, with Democrats securing majorities in both the House and the Senate, it would amount to a decisive vote of no confidence in Trump’s leadership, just two years after his sweeping election victory.

This could happen, among other reasons, because the war against Iran is increasingly viewed as a failed and unnecessary war. According to a Pew Research Center poll, 65% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the war is being conducted, which has also contributed to the rising cost of living.

If Democrats manage to take control of both chambers, they would be able to:

• Control the political and public agenda.
• Delay or freeze budgets, including aid funding for “Israel”.
• Block presidential appointments, including ambassadors and cabinet members.
• Initiate impeachment proceedings against members of the US administration. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is already in the crosshairs over his handling of the war against Iran and statements that could be interpreted as calls to commit war crimes.
• Summon senior administration officials to testify at congressional hearings.

2. A divided balance of power

Under this scenario, Democrats win a majority in the House but fail to secure one in the Senate.

Although they would be unable to block appointments or pass legislation because Republicans would retain control of the Senate, they would still be able to summon administration officials to House hearings and initiate impeachment proceedings against officials. Such proceedings, however, would primarily serve as a tool for political confrontation.

In this scenario, the identities of the Democratic senators who win election would also matter.

Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan and Troy Jackson of Maine are considered among the lawmakers with particularly strong anti-“Israel” positions who oppose aid to “Israel”. If elected, they could have a negative impact on “Israel”, even without a Democratic majority in the Senate.

3. Republicans retain their majorities

This is the ideal scenario for Trump, although all current projections suggest it is highly unlikely.

If Republicans retain control of both chambers, the president’s position would be strengthened. This could reduce the likelihood of a resumption of the war against Iran, as the political and media climate would be in his favor. It would also allow him to continue providing extensive support to “Israel” through 2028.

The "Yedioth Ahronoth" political correspondent argued that the deeper question for “Israel” is not simply how much power Democrats will wield, but also the direction in which their voter base is moving.

According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted last April, 80% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters hold an unfavorable view of “Israel”, up from 69% a year earlier and 53% in 2022.

Eichner noted that new voices are also emerging within the party’s leadership. Katherine Clark, the second-ranking Democrat in the House leadership, has said that the United States should not give a “blank check” to a country that does not abide by American laws and values.

Greg Casar, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has also said that funding for the “Israeli” military should not continue while Americans are struggling economically.

Eichner also highlighted the US-“Israel” security Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which casts a shadow over these developments. The current agreement remains in effect until 2028, and negotiations over a new memorandum are expected to take place during the current Congress or the one that follows.

“Israeli” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously said that he wants to begin reducing “Israel’s” reliance on American aid during the final two years of Trump’s term.

Meanwhile, US Ambassador to “Israel” Mike Huckabee wrote that the new MOU would “end aid” and instead be based on trade.

William Galston of the Brookings Institution has also estimated that if Netanyahu remains in office, a “political war” will erupt between him and the Democrats, potentially bringing direct US aid to “Israel” to a complete end.

By contrast, a new “Israeli” government could enjoy a brief “breathing space.” However, some in Washington believe that the focus on Netanyahu personally is less important than it may appear, and that pressure from the Democratic Party’s grassroots base will continue even if the country’s leadership changes.

How will Trump respond if he loses control of one of the chambers?

Addressing this question, Eichner quoted Kobi Barda, an expert on American affairs, who stressed that a US president who loses control of either chamber of Congress will find it more difficult to advance domestic legislation and policies. As a result, he is likely to devote greater attention to foreign policy.

According to Barda, Trump will focus his efforts on reaching a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, which he sees as one of the major achievements he wants to leave as part of his political legacy.

He will also seek to impose what he has described as “Abraham Accords 2.0” on the next “Israeli” prime minister, whoever is elected to the position.

The impact of the next “Israeli” government on relations with Washington

Eichner also expects the composition of the next “Israeli” government to have a significant impact on relations between Washington and "Tel Aviv".

If Netanyahu remains in office, Democrats will prepare for a confrontation with him. However, if a government led by Gadi Eisenkot is formed, Barda believes both sides would be willing to reset relations and turn over a new leaf.

In conclusion, Kobi Barda, as quoted by the "Yedioth Ahronoth" political correspondent, believes that if Trump manages to retain control of both chambers of Congress, it may still be possible to salvage the next US-“Israel” security Memorandum of Understanding.